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m3n4.net May 23, 2018


Oil production exceeds 10 million barrels a day

05 February 2018, 05:25 | Vera Richards

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pumped 32.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, the survey found, up 100,000 bpd from December.

But do the ministers protest too much? "Yet demand has quietly underpinned the tightening of the market over the past year", Jon Rigby from UBS said in a note. Oil demand growth will still be "solid" in 2018 even as higher prices slow the pace from a year ago.

Taylor sees prices rising on the back of "robust" growth in global demand, but tipped the market would remain "boringly rangebound" in the short and medium term. The indicator was significantly higher than analysts' forecasts, which expected the stock to grow by only 126,000 barrels.

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Goldman's short-term optimism presumably baffles Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service: he told CNBC that crude has entered a danger zone due to "the tremendous speculative bubble and the money on the crude oil side".

Worldwide benchmark Brent crude added 76 cents Thursday to $69.65.

USA crude oil production in November surpassed 10 million barrels per day for the rst time since 1970, and neared the all-time output record, the Energy Information Administration said.

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The administration expects much of the growth in this year's crude production to come from tight rock formations within the Permian region in Texas and from the Federal Gulf of Mexico. Over the past few years, when oil prices were facing severe scrutiny, oil producers around the world were struggling. The average cost of a gallon of regular unleaded in the Houston area increased to $2.28, up 20 cents from a year ago, while the national average rose to $2.57 a gallon, up 31 cents over the year, according to GasBuddy, which tracks fuel prices nationwide. On the other hands, oil refineries processed an average of 16 million barrels of crude oil last week down from 16.5 million in the previous week. A decade ago, in November 2008, production from tight formations accounted for only 7% of total USA production.

Investment bank UBS forecasts that supply growth will outpace demand growth in 2018, adding that "current prices, if sustained, could prompt a renewed inventory build-up". Meantime, the dollar stopped losing value, re-moving one of the main positive drivers for oil/fuel prices over the past two months.

Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih, who chairs a six-country monitoring committee overseeing the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut agreement, suggested at a January 21 meeting in Oman that the coalition may need to be more nimble with its inventories target and tweak it to take into account crude grades and regional inventories.

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Goldman says the market is already balanced. They are also perhaps an indication that the coalition may be willing to adjust its cuts to respond to tightness in some markets. In fact, Canadian oil exports have surged as USA refineries especially on the Gulf Coast prefer heavier Canadian oil over light shale. The participants decided late last year to extend the deal through the end of this year.



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